Researchers predict nearly a twofold increase in tick numbers by 2080, posing greater risk of Lyme disease and other infections.

A new study has revealed that the population of ticks in Scotland could nearly double by 2080 due to climate change, with rising temperatures potentially triggering a significant increase in tick density. The research, conducted by mathematicians at the University of Stirling, warns that the increase in tick numbers will exacerbate the spread of tick-borne illnesses, such as Lyme disease, which has become a growing public health concern in the region.

Ticks, which are small arachnids found in grassy, woodland areas, are known to spread a range of diseases, including Lyme disease, which can cause severe symptoms such as facial paralysis, heart arrhythmias, and conditions similar to meningitis. The new model developed by the team predicts the future distribution and density of tick populations across Scotland, factoring in different climate change scenarios, including a 4°C rise in global temperatures.

According to the study, a 1°C increase in global temperatures by 2080 would result in a 26% rise in tick populations across Scotland. However, if global temperatures were to rise by 4°C, the number of ticks would almost double, with a predicted increase of 99% in tick density by the end of the century.

Lead researcher Professor Rachel Norman highlighted that the model predicts an increase in tick populations across all climate warming scenarios. The study revealed that woodland habitats are likely to experience the highest absolute increases in tick density, while montane habitats—typically cooler, higher areas of Scotland—will see the largest proportional increases, with areas that were once tick-free expected to become warm enough to support tick populations by 2080.

Professor Norman emphasized the potential for this research to be adapted to predict disease risks, not just in Scotland, but globally. She explained, “This methodology could be used more broadly to understand the dynamic response of populations over time to environmental changes and offers a new tool for researchers studying the impact of climate change on disease vectors.”

The study also found that only Scotland’s highest peaks will remain too cold to support tick populations, even under the most extreme warming scenarios.

With increasing concern over the rise in tick populations and Lyme disease cases, this research offers a vital tool for predicting the spread of tick-borne diseases. The study, titled “GIS-ODE: Linking Dynamic Population Models with GIS to Predict Pathogen Vector Abundance Across a Country Under Climate Change Scenarios”, was published in the journal Interface, a publication of the Royal Society.

The findings suggest that proactive measures will be needed to manage tick populations and mitigate the risk of tick-borne diseases as the climate continues to change.