As benefits threaten to outpace funding, both parties are hesitant to make necessary cuts.

In today’s political landscape, cutting Social Security or Medicare benefits seems to be off the table for both parties. President Joe Biden is already promising voters that his upcoming budget proposal will “defend and strengthen” these vital programs. Meanwhile, Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has also ruled out cuts during negotiations to raise the federal debt limit.

However, these assurances come with a significant caveat: Social Security is projected to be unable to pay out promised benefits in about a dozen years, while Medicare faces a similar fate in just five years. Economists warn that both programs could exacerbate the national debt, forcing difficult choices for future lawmakers.

The Funding Dilemma
Social Security and Medicare are primarily funded through payroll taxes, deducted from workers’ paychecks. Biden asserts that people are merely receiving what they’ve contributed. Yet, as the baby boomer generation ages and retires, the number of beneficiaries is increasing faster than the revenue generated from payroll taxes. This year, payroll taxes are expected to yield $1.56 trillion, but the combined costs of Social Security and Medicare are projected to reach $2.16 trillion, according to a recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report. Alarmingly, the CBO has warned that benefit cuts may need to occur as soon as 2032.

CBO Director Phillip Swagel highlighted at a recent event that while benefits are currently being paid in full, the looming shortfall poses a significant challenge. The number of Medicare enrollees has more than tripled since its inception in 1966, and in just the past decade, over 10 million new retirees and disabled individuals have joined the program.

The shortfall in tax revenues, combined with the rising number of recipients, could lead to Social Security’s trust fund being unable to fully pay benefits by 2035. Medicare’s trust fund is expected to reach this point even earlier, in 2028.

Potential Solutions
Addressing this financial crisis requires political solutions, and several options are on the table:

Raise Taxes: Increasing payroll taxes or reinstating them for higher earners could generate additional revenue.
Change Eligibility Requirements: Adjusting the age at which individuals can access benefits might ease financial pressures.
Cut Costs: Streamlining benefits or reducing administrative expenses could help.
Utilise General Revenues: Relying more on general tax revenues to fill the funding gap could lead to higher budget deficits or cuts to other programs.
Last year, Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act aimed to lower drug prices for Medicare beneficiaries, projecting savings of $237 billion over the next decade. However, some Republicans criticized these measures as detrimental to pharmaceutical innovation. Meanwhile, Democrats are also focusing on curbing costs related to the Medicare Advantage program, calling for investigations into wasteful spending.

Sen. Mitt Romney has proposed bipartisan committees to explore solutions for the trust funds, though his efforts have gained limited traction. In contrast, previous proposals to raise the eligibility age for Social Security and Medicare have faced backlash, especially with an electorate that heavily relies on these benefits.

The Political Landscape
The political climate surrounding Social Security and Medicare is fraught with tension. In his State of the Union address, Biden faced boos from Republican lawmakers when he suggested that some members wanted to cut these essential programs. The audience response underscored a bipartisan commitment to protect benefits, at least in rhetoric.

With a significant portion of the electorate being over 50 years old, the stakes are high. According to AP VoteCast, nearly 60% of voters in the last midterm elections were over this age, many of whom are either beneficiaries or on the verge of receiving benefits.

Historical Context and Global Perspectives
Reflecting on history, the 1983 agreement between President Ronald Reagan and House Speaker Tip O’Neill to extend Social Security’s viability serves as a model for potential bipartisan solutions. Changes made then, such as raising the retirement age and adjusting cost-of-living adjustments, did not result in significant political fallout.

However, the challenges are not unique to the U.S. Similar issues are emerging globally, as countries grapple with the financial implications of aging populations. In France, protests erupted against proposed changes to the retirement age, while in China, seniors have protested cuts to healthcare benefits.

As highlighted by a recent International Monetary Fund analysis, the growing aging population worldwide presents colossal health, social, and economic challenges. Without action, the funding for healthcare benefits could dwindle, leading to increased disease and a lower quality of life for older adults.

Conclusion
The future of Social Security and Medicare hangs in the balance, requiring immediate attention and political will. As both parties navigate the complexities of funding these critical programs, they must confront the uncomfortable math that reveals a looming crisis. Without proactive measures, the promise of these benefits may become increasingly difficult to uphold.