Oceanographers analyse past storm surges to assess future flood risks in UK and Ireland

Researchers from the University of Southampton have conducted an in-depth study of storm surges that occurred across British and Irish coastlines between 1980 and 2017. The findings aim to enhance future predictions for coastal flooding, as extreme weather events become more frequent due to the impact of climate change.

The study, led by Southampton’s oceanographers, is the most comprehensive analysis of storm surges to date. Storm surges, which occur when wind pushes water onshore, lead to abnormal rises in seawater levels. The intensity of these surges depends on the size, speed, and location of the storm relative to the coastline.

Professor Ivan Haigh, a key researcher in the study, stressed that storm surges are a major cause of flooding along coastal regions. He believes that understanding the factors influencing surges in different locations will improve predictions and allow better preparation for such events. As climate change drives more extreme weather, the study’s findings will enhance the accuracy of models used to predict storm impacts.

The team identified 270 extreme storm surge events over the 37-year period, examining their severity, duration, and geographical reach. They discovered that the Irish Sea’s northern coast experiences the most significant and long-lasting surges, while the southwest of England faces smaller, shorter surges.

Two winters were particularly notable: the 1989/90 winter, which saw devastating flooding in Towyn and Clwyd, Wales, and the 2013/14 winter, which experienced 13 major flooding events. The latter included a severe storm surge in December 2013 that caused extensive damage to properties in East Anglia.

Dr Paula Camus, the study’s lead author, highlighted the importance of analysing past storm surges to better prepare for future coastal flood risks. With climate change likely to increase the frequency of these extreme events, having detailed and accurate data is essential for planning effective responses and infrastructure improvements.

The research, which also involved scientists from Spain, the USA, and the Netherlands, was published in the Weather and Climate Extremes journal. The study also acknowledged the need for future research to include tidal influences in the analysis of storm surges.