The massive hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo river could have profound impacts on communities and ecosystems, with potential geopolitical implications for India and Bangladesh.

China has approved the construction of what will be the world’s largest hydropower dam, a project that has raised alarms over its social and environmental consequences. Situated along the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet, this ambitious infrastructure could generate three times the energy output of the Three Gorges Dam, currently the largest hydropower plant in the world.

State-run Chinese media have framed the dam as a project designed with ecological preservation in mind, claiming it will spur local economic growth and help achieve China’s climate neutrality goals. However, human rights organisations and experts have voiced strong objections, particularly regarding the displacement of local populations and the potential destruction of the delicate ecosystem in Tibet—home to some of the most biodiverse regions in the world.

This dam, which has been under discussion since 2020, is part of China’s broader strategy to exploit the hydropower potential of the Tibetan Plateau. Critics argue that it is another example of China’s exploitation of Tibetan lands and resources. Tibet, a region that has long been under Chinese control, has seen numerous development projects that activists claim suppress local rights and cultures. Protests against similar projects, such as the Gangtuo dam earlier this year, have been met with heavy repression, including arrests and physical abuse of protestors.

China maintains that the Yarlung Tsangpo dam will not have a significant environmental impact, but the scale of the project raises questions about its long-term effects. There is no clarity on the number of people who will be displaced, but experts note that the Three Gorges Dam required the relocation of over 1.4 million people. The construction involves drilling tunnels through the Namcha Barwa mountain, one of the most seismic-prone regions in the world, which could increase the risk of landslides and geological instability.

Another concern is the potential for China to control the flow of the Yarlung Tsangpo river, which crosses into India and Bangladesh. Both countries rely on this water source for agriculture and hydropower, and experts warn that Chinese control over the river could have serious economic and diplomatic consequences. A report by the Lowy Institute in 2020 highlighted the geopolitical risks, particularly for India, which has already expressed intentions to build a counter-dam to mitigate the impact of China’s hydropower projects.

In response to Indian concerns, China’s foreign ministry has defended its right to develop the river’s resources, insisting that it has taken downstream effects into account. Despite these reassurances, the dam’s potential to affect the water supply for millions in India and Bangladesh cannot be overlooked.

The cost of the project is estimated to reach up to one trillion yuan ($127 billion; £109.3 billion), and its completion would mark the latest in a series of large-scale hydropower projects China has undertaken in the region. However, its location in a tectonically active area presents significant engineering challenges, with the risk of earthquakes and landslides adding another layer of complexity to the dam’s construction.

As the world watches closely, this project represents not only a massive engineering feat but also a flashpoint for environmental and human rights debates in the region.