Forecasts Predict Record Temperatures Driven by El Niño and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
The Met Office has warned that 2024 is set to be a significant year in climate history, with global temperatures potentially exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time in modern history. This is a critical threshold, as surpassing it, even temporarily, highlights the accelerating effects of climate change and the role of human activity in global warming.
The Paris Agreement set the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but this target is assessed over two decades. Exceeding 1.5°C in a single year does not mean the target has been missed, although it serves as a stark reminder of the intensifying climate crisis.
Met Office projections suggest that 2024’s average global temperature will fall between 1.34°C and 1.58°C above levels from the late 19th century, marking the 11th consecutive year of temperatures exceeding 1°C above pre-industrial averages. The primary cause of this continued rise is human-induced warming that began with the industrial revolution.
El Niño, a naturally occurring phenomenon that warms the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, is exacerbating the situation. Its influence is expected to extend into the spring of 2024, temporarily pushing global temperatures higher. This follows a record-setting 2023, which is set to become the hottest year on record, surpassing 2020 and 2016.
Dr. Nick Dunstone of the Met Office explained that the ongoing trend of global warming, increasing by approximately 0.2°C per decade, is further amplified by El Niño events. These conditions are set to create back-to-back years of record-breaking temperatures. While a brief exceedance of the 1.5°C threshold does not indicate a breach of the Paris Agreement, it represents a major milestone in the trajectory of global climate change.
Exceeding 1.5°C, even temporarily, brings the world closer to tipping points in the climate system. It could lead to irreversible melting of glaciers, increased ocean heat that threatens coral reefs, and other ecological impacts that are difficult to reverse, even if emissions are reduced.
Professor Adam Scaife from the Met Office highlighted that the main driver for these extreme temperatures is the ongoing impact of human-caused warming. With December still to come, 2023 is nearly certain to be the hottest year on record, surpassing 2016’s previous high, which was also influenced by an El Niño event.
The growing combination of El Niño, anomalously high temperatures in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, and the broader effects of climate change underscore the extreme nature of these new global temperature records. The Met Office’s forecast underscores the urgent need for climate action to prevent further destabilisation of the Earth’s ecosystems.
