Obesity, Ageing, and Population Growth Drive Significant Increase in Cases
Osteoarthritis, the most common form of arthritis, currently impacts 15% of the global population over the age of 30, and researchers estimate that by 2050, nearly one billion people will be affected by the condition. A study published in The Lancet Rheumatology projects that osteoarthritis cases will continue to rise rapidly, driven by ageing, population growth, and obesity.
The research, part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, analysed data spanning three decades (1990–2020) from over 200 countries. In 1990, 256 million people had osteoarthritis, a number that grew to 595 million by 2020—a staggering 132% increase. The condition is particularly prevalent among older adults, with people aged 70 and above ranking it as the seventh leading cause of years lived with disability.
Obesity is a key factor in the rise of osteoarthritis, contributing to approximately 20% of its disability burden in 2020. The knees and hips are the most commonly affected joints, with projections suggesting that by 2050, osteoarthritis will increase by 74.9% in the knees, 78.6% in the hips, and 48.6% in the hands. Other joints, including the elbows and shoulders, could see a rise of 95.1%.
Dr. Jaimie Steinmetz, lead research scientist at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), stressed the need for preventive strategies, early interventions, and affordable joint replacements, especially in low- and middle-income countries. “With the growing global population and people living longer, health systems will face significant strain,” said Dr. Steinmetz.
Women are disproportionately affected by osteoarthritis, accounting for 61% of cases in 2020. While the reasons for this gender difference are still under investigation, factors such as genetics, hormonal influences, and anatomical differences are believed to play a role.
As osteoarthritis becomes an increasing global health issue, the focus must shift towards managing the condition through prevention and more accessible treatments, especially as the global population continues to age.
